East Coast Tropical Threat

September 5, 2007

STATE COLLEGE, PA (ACCUWEATHER) — While Felix is weakening over Central America and a second landfall is in the near future for Hurricane Henriette, the East Coast could be bracing for its own land-falling tropical system this weekend.

An area of low pressure spinning well offshore of the Southeast is closely being monitored for tropical development. As the low meanders over the warm waters of the western Atlantic Ocean, the Hurricane Center reports that the seventh tropical depression of the year could form as soon as today. The system may then strengthen further into a tropical storm, acquiring the name Gabrielle, by Friday.

While the low will not make much movement over the next couple of days, the Hurricane Center reports that the low could take aim on the East Coast this weekend. An area of high pressure currently providing the Northeast with pleasant weather could shift east, then southeastward, helping to guide the system towards the shoreline.

All interests along the East Coast should closely monitor the development of the low; however, the greatest threat currently lies from the eastern Carolinas to southern New England.

The East Coast will not be the only part of the nation to be threatened by a tropical system in the upcoming days. Moisture from Hurricane Henriette will spread drenching thunderstorms into southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico and far West Texas beginning tonight. Dangerous flash flooding could easily result from the heavy bursts of rain.

Before impacting the Desert Southwest, the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center states that Henriette will batter northwestern Mexico with heavy rain before and after it makes its second landfall later today.

As of 2 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Henriette was located over the Sea of Cortez, about 80 miles southwest of Los Mochis, Mexico. Maximum-sustained winds registered near 75 mph with higher gusts, making Henriette a Category 1 storm.

Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect for the east coast of Baja California and the northwest coast of mainland Mexico.

Five to ten inches of rain with locally 15 inches in the higher terrain will accompany Henriette through northwestern Mexico. The deluge of rain could trigger potentially deadly flash floods and mudslides. Henriette will also whip up a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet near its path.

As a Category 1 hurricane, Henriette made its first landfall along the southern tip of Baja California, a resort destination popular with Hollywood stars, around Tuesday afternoon PDT. Before making landfall and becoming a hurricane, the Associated Press reports that Henriette claimed seven lives. One woman drowned in high surf in Cabo San Lucas Monday. As the storm earlier brushed Acapulco, six people died in floods and landslides.

Over Central America, once-dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Felix has weakened into a tropical depression. As of 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Felix was located just outside of the Honduran capital of Tegulcigalpa with maximum-sustained winds of 30 mph.

While wind speeds of 165 mph, which Felix boosted just prior to landfall Tuesday morning, will definitely not accompany Felix today, a major threat for flooding will. Upwards of 8 to 12 inches of rain has already inundated much of eastern Central America. Ten to fifteen inches of rain will pound western parts of these countries through Thursday, potentially triggering life-threatening flooding and mudslides.