2010 Hurricane Season Will Be Active, Colorado State Team Predicts

April 7, 2010

MELBOURNE, FLORIDA (FLORIDA TODAY) - A forecast team at Colorado State University predicts more hurricanes than usual this year because El Nino is expected end by this summer while the Atlantic should remain warm enough to fuel strong storms.

The team predicts 15 named storms during the 2010 season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Eight of those storms are expected to grow to hurricanes and four into major hurricanes (Category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

Long-term averages are about 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes per year.

“We expect current moderate El Nino conditions to transition to neutral conditions by this year’s hurricane season,” Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster on team said in a media release.

El Nino, a pattern of warmer than usual water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator creates winds that tend to tear apart tropical systems before they can form hurricanes.

When the Pacific cools to more neutral conditions, those winds aren’t around as much to temper hurricane formation.

The latest forecast marks 27 year of hurricane forecasting at Colorado State, led by William Gray.

The team bases its predictions on 58 years of data.

“Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent,” Gray said in the release. “While patterns may change before the start of hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season.”

In 2009, Gray predicted six hurricanes and 12 named storms. The season actually saw three hurricanes and nine named storms.