Hurricane Forecaster Sees Busier 2010 Season

April 20, 2010

NEW YORK (REUTERS) - Private weather forecaster WSI on Tuesday raised its forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

"The primary drivers for tropical activity have reversed course this year and the stage appears to be set for a very busy season in 2010," WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford said.

The coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year, according to WSI.

"Our model suggests that the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states," Crawford said.

Last year was the quietest tropical season since 1997 due to an El Nino event and relatively cool tropical Atlantic waters, but El Nino events tend to be followed by more activity, WSI said.

This year, another factor that increases the likelihood of storms, warmer Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are also in place.

"Eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for April, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005," Crawford said.

The current forecast numbers are more likely to be adjusted upwards rather than downwards as the season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, approaches, Crawford said.

The 2010 forecast numbers are well above the long-term average for 1950-2009 of 10 named storms, six hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes, but below the average from the more recent 15-year period of 14 names storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.